Desarrollo de un modelo predictivo de las emisiones de CO2, el consumo energético y el desarrollo sostenible en India 1990-2030

  1. Gregorio Ortega Ruiz
Supervised by:
  1. José Enrique García Ramos Director
  2. Ángel Isidro Mena Nieto Director

Defence university: Universidad de Huelva

Year of defence: 2022


Type: Thesis


The main objective of this thesis is to analyse and compare the driving forces that cause carbon dioxide emissions in India, given the special global relevance that these emissions are expected to have. To do this, different techniques have been used and are applied, as a matter of comparison, to the six largest emitters in the world, namely China, the United States of America, the European Union, India, Russia and Japan, responsible for more than 67% of global emissions during the period 1990-2018. The analysis is based on an LMDI decomposition procedure of an expanded Kaya identity, considering five driving forces and a Granger causality study. Both techniques allow us to unravel the relationship between the different driving forces and to know how they change from one country to another, facilitating the understanding of the Indian case. On the other hand, an extrapolation will be carried out, within some proposed scenarios, for the CO2 emissions and the Gross Domestic Product in the country, in order to be able to predict the future behaviour of energy intensity, an indicator proposed by India for the fulfilment of its Commitments in the Paris Agreements. The main conclusion of the Kaya-LMDI analysis is that economic growth has been the main driver for increasing CO2 emissions and, to a much lesser extent, population growth in most of the six economies analysed. On the other hand, energy intensity is the main factor to reduce CO2 emissions. Surprisingly, the term end-use fuel mix rarely contributes to emissions declines, showing that the use of renewable energy still needs to be actively promoted. It is worth noting the different behaviour observed between the four developed countries and the two developing ones, which are the most populated ones, China and India. Granger causality analysis suggests that energy intensity Granger causes GDP in developed countries, energy intensity also Granger also causes CO2 emissions in half of the countries, and GDP Granger causes CO2 emissions in only one case, Japan. Extrapolation of the data, within the proposed scenarios, suggests that compliance of the Indian NDC can only be achieved by employing all the measures proposed by India in its NDC, namely, renewable energy expansion, economic growth and deployment of supercritical technology in all coal plants for electricity generation, with the consequent improvement in efficiency.