Predicción de la distribución geográfica global de "Lolium rigidum" bajo condiciones de cambio climático
- Elena Castellanos Frías
- Fernando Bastida Milián
- José Luis González Andújar
- Urbano Fuentes-Guerra, José María (coord.)
Publisher: [Sevilla] : Consejería de Agricultura, Pesca y Desarrollo Rural, 2015
ISBN: 978-84-608-2775-7
Year of publication: 2015
Pages: 297-302
Congress: Sociedad Española de Malherbología. Congreso (15. 2015. Sevilla)
Type: Conference paper
Abstract
“Lolium rigidum” Gaud. (rigid ryegrass) is one of the most extended and harmful weeds in winter cereal crops. A bioclimatic model for this species was developed using CLIMEX. The model was validated with records from North America and Oceania and used to assess the global potential distribution of “L. rigidum” under the current climate and under two climate change scenarios. The projection under current climate conditions indicated that “L. rigidum” does not occupy the full extent of the climatically suitable area available to it. Under future climate scenarios, the infested potential area will increase 3.79% in the low-emission CO2 scenario and 5.06% under the most extreme scenario. The model projection showed a gradual advance of rigid ryegrass in North America, Europe, South America and Asia, whilst in Africa and Oceania it indicated regression. These results provide the necessary knowledge for identifying and highlighting the potential invasion risk areas.