Previsão de secas na primavera em Portugal Continental com base em indicadores climáticos de larga escala

  1. Santos, J.F
  2. Portela, M.M.
  3. Pulido-Calvo, I.
Revista:
Ingeniería del agua

ISSN: 1134-2196

Año de publicación: 2015

Volumen: 19

Número: 4

Páginas: 211-227

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.4995/IA.2015.4109 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Ingeniería del agua

Resumen

O sucesso de uma estratégia de mitigação dos efeitos da seca passa pela implementação de um sistema de monitorização e previsão eficaz, capaz de identificar os eventos de seca e de seguir a sua evolução espácio-temporal. Neste artigo demonstrase a eficiência de redes neuronais artificiais na previsão, para Portugal, do índice de precipitação padronizada, SPI, relativo à primavera. A validação dos modelos recorreu ao hindcasting, designando-se, por tal, a técnica através da qual um dado modelo é testado mediante a sua aplicação a períodos temporais históricos, com comparação dos resultados obtidos com as respectivas observações. O índice SPI foi calculado à escala temporal de 6 meses tendo o hindcast utilizado como indicadores climáticos a oscilação do Atlântico Norte e temperaturas da superfície do mar. O estudo evidenciou a mais valia da inclusão dos anteriores predictores externos no modelo de previsão. Elaboraram-se, ainda, mapas de probabilidade de ocorrência de seca os quais constituem importantes ferramentas no planeamento integrado e na gestão de recursos hídricos.

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