Modelización de la distribución potencial de las principales especies arbóreas y sus formaciones forestales en Andalucía (España)

Abstract

In the present work, three groups of species have been studied in Andalusia: (i) Chapter I studies mid-high mountain conifers, (ii) Chapter II encompasses five oak trees, (iii) Chapter III discusses the potential trends of three Mediterranean pines, (iv) Chapter IV is focused on Quercus suber along the Mediterranean basin. Methodology was developed by means of ArcGIS 10 (ESRI, 2010) and SPSS Statistics 20 (IBM, 2011). A grid of points with a detailed resolution was made. Data on environmental (climatic and topographic) and edaphic conditions, together with presence/absence of the target species, were associated to each point. The most restricted species, Abies pinsapo, is today more abundant than several decades ago when it was used for firewood. Four of the five oaks in chapter II exhibited a gradual narrower potential distribution along the 21st century, being favoured Q. ilex subsp. ballota by the projected global warming. In chapter III, during the 21st century, Pinus pinea could expand its potential area eastwards. Pinus halepensis and P. pinaster could exhibit the opposite trend (especially the latter, which might find shelter at higher elevations). Finally, chapter IV highlights a broad contraction of Q. suber potential range over the 21st century in the Mediterranean basin.