Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado

  1. Leal Linares, María Teresa
  2. Pérez, Javier J.
Revista:
Estudios de economía aplicada

ISSN: 1133-3197 1697-5731

Any de publicació: 2011

Títol de l'exemplar: Economía del Turismo

Volum: 29

Número: 3

Pàgines: 909

Tipus: Article

DOI: 10.25115/EEA.V29I3.4423 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

Altres publicacions en: Estudios de economía aplicada

Resum

This paper examines the characteristics and determinants of the deviations between the initial and final figures of the Spanish public budget from 1985 to 2006. Our goal is to evaluate the extent to which initial budgeted figures adhered ex-post to actual fiscal figures, by trying to unveil systematic biases and to identify the economic, political or institutional causes of such deviations. In line with findings for other advanced economies, we document the exis-tence of systematic biases in budget estimates when compared to realised outcomes, thus hinting to the existence of margin for improving budgeting performance in Spain.

Referències bibliogràfiques

  • ARGIMÓN, I. Y F. MARTÍ (2006), “Las finanzas publicas de las Comunidades Autónomas: presupuestos y liquidaciones”, Boletín Económico del Banco de España, diciembre.
  • ARTIS, M.J. Y M. MARCELLINO (2001). “Fiscal forecasting. The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC”. Econometrics Journal, 4, pp. 20-36.
  • AUERBACH, A.J. (1999). “On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts”. National Tax Journal, 52, pp. 765-782.
  • BOYLAN, R. T. (2008). “Political distortions in state forecasts”. Public Choice, 136, pp. 411-427.
  • BRETSCHNEIDER, S.I., W.L. GORR, G. GRIZZLE, E. KLAY (1989), “Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues”. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, pp. 307-319.
  • CASSIDY, G., M. S. KAMLET Y D. S. NAGIN (1989), “An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments”. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, pp. 321-331.
  • CORRALES F., R. VARELA Y J. DOMÉNECH (2002). “Los saldos presupuestarios cíclico y estructural de la economía española”. Hacienda Pública Española, 162, 3, pp. 9-33.
  • DARBY, J. AND J. MELITZ (2008). “Social Spending and Automatic Stabilisers in the OECD”. trabajo preparado para el “47th Panel of Economic Policy” en Ljubljana, 18-19 de abril.
  • DIEBOLD, F. Y R. MARIANO (1995): “Comparing predictive accuracy”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13, 253-263.
  • FEENBERG, D.R., W. GENTRY, D. GILROY Y H.S. ROSEN (1989). “Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, pp. 300-308.
  • GENTRY, W.M. (1989), “Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information?”. National Tax Journal, 42, pp. 429-39.
  • HOLDEN, K. Y D. A. PEEL (1990): “On testing for unbiasedness and efficiency of forecasts”, The Manchester School 63, 120–127.
  • JONUNG, L. Y M. LARCH (2006). “Fiscal policy in the EU. Are official output forecasts biased?”. Economic Policy, Julio, pp. 491-534.
  • KEEREMAN, F. (1999). “The track record of the Commission Forecasts”. Economic Papers of the European Commission DG for Economic and Financial Affairs, 137, October.
  • LEAL, T. Y J.J. PÉREZ (2009). “Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado”. Banco de España, Documento de Trabajo 933.
  • LEAL, T., J.J. PÉREZ, M. TUJULA Y J.P. VIDAL (2008). “Fiscal Forecasting. Lessons from the Literature and Challenges”. Fiscal Studies, 29, pp. 347-386.
  • MELANDER A., G. SISMANIDIS Y D. GRENOUILLEAU (2007), “The track record of the Commission’s forecasts – an update”. European Economy, Economic Papers 291, DG ECFIN, European Commission, Brussels.
  • MOULIN, L. Y P. WIERTS (2006). “How Credible are Multiannual Budgetary Plans in the EU?”, in: Banca d’Italia (eds) Fiscal Indicators, pp. 983–1005.
  • MUSSO, A. Y S. PHILLIPS (2002). “Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs”. IMF Staff Papers, 49, 1, pp. 22-48.
  • PONS, J. Y A. SOLÉ (2001). “Racionalidad de las previsiones presupuestarias y comportamiento estratégico. El caso español”. Hacienda Pública Española, 157, 2, pp. 197-232.
  • POTERBA, J.M. Y VON HAGEN, J., EDS. (1999). Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance. Nacional Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago Press, EEUU.
  • STRAUCH, R., M. HALLERBERG Y J. VON HAGEN (2004). “Budgetary Forecasts in Europe - The Track Record of Stability and Covergence Programmes”. Banco Central Europeo, Documento de Trabajo 307.