Análisis de las variables económicas que determinan las exportaciones de mango a estados unidos de América

Resumo

The identification and estimation of the variables that determine the exports of mango from Mexico to the UnitedStates of America is done with econometric models, which are used to estimate economic relationships, testhypothesis and predict the behavior of economic variables Econometric models allow to identify and estimate theparameters of the variables that determine the export of mango to United States, main destination of Mexicanmango exports. This research was carried out a characterization of the production and export of mango, analysedthe factors that determine changes in export and calculated elasticities of the variables that determine the changesin the export of mango. A multiple linear regression model was developed and estimated the parameters of themodel with the method of ordinary least squares. The econometric model estimated reflects that mango exports arebased on the per capita gross domestic product, the price of export and exchange rate. The estimated parametersare statistically significant and have the signs in accordance with economic theory, elasticities obtained are 0.420.32 and - 0.61 for the per capita gross domestic product, the export price and the exchange rate, respectively. Theelasticities are smaller than one, reflect that there is a positive relationship between per capita gross domesticproduct and export price with exports and an inverse relationship between the exchange rate with exports. Theimpacts of changes in the estimated exogenous variables are low, inelastic, as less than one.