Application of the system dynamics methodology for modeling and simulation of the greenhouse gas emissions (gge) in Cartagena de Indias (Colombia).

Resumen

This communication shows the first results of the application of the System Dynamics methodology for the modeling and simulation of greenhouse gas emissions (GGE), especially carbon dioxide (CO2) in the district of Cartagena de Indias (Colombia). In the developed model, the key variables responsible for emissions of greenhouse gases have been identified, as well as the representative variables of the identity KAYA (energy intensity, Gross Domestic Product-GDP, energy consumption and population) are considered. The tool used for simulation has been VENSIM, software widely used in System Dynamics. Based on historical data, the results of the simulations in different scenarios, from a baseline scenario, show that CO2 emissions present a trend of gradual increase over time, a very serious situation which would require special attention by both the environmental and urban planning authorities, establishing proactive environmental policies and strategies that will stabilize this growth. The Systems Dynamic modeling can become a very powerful and cheap tool that allows the improvement of their decision making.